The recent discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted crucial oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if real (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning atomic explosion on future worldwide oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pushing the IEA to underplay the rate of decrease from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of discovering new reserves have the possible to throw federal governments' into chaos.
Whatever the reality, increasing long term worldwide needs appear certain to overtake production in the next years, specifically given the high and rising expenses of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a scenario, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing function by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this technology to the forefront, among the wealthiest possible production areas has been absolutely neglected by investors up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to end up being a major player in the production of biofuels if enough foreign financial investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is produced largely from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom since of record-high energy costs, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and fairly scant hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mostly prevented their capability to capitalize increasing worldwide energy needs already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan stay largely reliant for their electrical needs on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their increased requirement to create winter season electricity has led to autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn severely impacting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these three downstream nations do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era tradition of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually become a major producer of wheat. Based on my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, offered the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have excellent appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower degree Astana for those sturdy investors happy to wager on the future, particularly as a plant indigenous to the area has actually already shown itself in trials.
Known in the West as false flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased scientific interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American companies currently examining how to produce it in business quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines carried out a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, ending up being the first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks during a one-hour demonstration flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month evaluation of camelina's functional efficiency capability and prospective industrial viability.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to recommend it. It has a high oil content low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another bonus offer of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre sown with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can draw out 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it a particularly fine livestock feed prospect that is simply now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is quick growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop ideal for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and barely a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological evidence suggests it has actually been cultivated in Europe for at least 3 centuries to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research study, revealed a large range of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil material differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been determined to be in the 6-8 lb per acre range, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per pound can create problems in germination to accomplish an optimal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's capacity might enable Uzbekistan to start breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the nation's efforts at agrarian reform given that achieving independence in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government figured out that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing fabric market. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also ordered by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in particular was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had ended up being self-sufficient in cotton
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Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity
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